Finals qualification

[lazzadesilva]

Two observations:

1. We will make the top 4.

2. We will play the Swans in the Grand Final.

It absolutely bloody disgusts me to say this but don’t rule out Carlscum

[Jezza]

Let's make sure we qualify first before declaring ourselves certainties of top 4 and being a Grand Finalist

[MagpiesTheGreat]

Let's make sure we qualify first before declaring ourselves certainties of top 4 and being a Grand Finalist

...and winning the back-to-back!!!

[RudeBoy]

Let's make sure we qualify first before declaring ourselves certainties of top 4 and being a Grand Finalist

...and winning the back-to-back!!!

That was my 3rd observation.

[Skids]

I don't think it's a bad draw at all. The danger game for me uis at the end of July, v the hawks. They're playing some pretty good footy.
6/4 to make the top 4 is stealing money.

[The Black and White Lion]

Dogs doing us a huge favour 7goals up on the Dockers today. Don't watch the Bont's latest GOTY contender. Should have had 2 free kicks for holding long before he kicked the goal. Still think Daicos has him covered though.

Back to the Dogs winning they move up to 28 points and Dockers stall on 30. With many byes this weekend, the Giants vs Port game is another 8point slider. If the Giants win and the Roos upset the Pies, the Giants can jump back up to 4th.

C'mon Pies take down the Roos and we're going to be 3rd on the ladder. Get a 2% boost and we're into 2nd as of Sunday night.

After our bye and the ladder naturalises for the first time all season, so long as we clear the Roos with +2%, we're going to slip as high as 4th or as low as 6th.

[Big T]

We just need to make it - any position - and we can threaten anyone at full strength

[piedys]

C'mon Pies take down the Roos and we're going to be 3rd on the ladder. Get a 2% boost and we're into 2nd as of Sunday night.

Or we just steal the 4 points and toddle off on vacation, then reload in two weeks time...

[Jezza]

8 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (36 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)

R16 - Gold Coast (A)
R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[The Black and White Lion]

C'mon Pies take down the Roos and we're going to be 3rd on the ladder. Get a 2% boost and we're into 2nd as of Sunday night.

Or we just steal the 4 points and toddle off on vacation, then reload in two weeks time...

yeah who needs drama when we have the modern Pies generation

[piffdog]

Thats a pretty nice run home at the 'G.

I am looking forward to a chance to play the Swans up there as a test. We might lose - but I recall both 2018 where we lost to Tiggers both times in the H&A and then enjoyed THAT prelim win.

We need to be tested. I am sure many of those games in that list will test us - but if we're going as well as many are saying, then we grab at least 5-6 which would get us to 56-60 points.

[qldmagpie67]

Our next 5 games are vital.
We need to secure 4 wins from them
All are winnable but also 4 are hard games against teams who currently are in around top 8 with aspirations

Rounds 21&22 are hard if we can split them then we will surely make top 4 and depending on the 5 previous games maybe top 2
Rounds 23&24 we should win both if our form is right and list healthy

Don’t fear Sydney as much as there record says.
There wining but last couple weeks have shown when out under immense pressure they are very beatable
If they have any injuries to Heeney, Warner, Gulden or Rowbottom there in trouble.
There forward line isn’t as damaging without the midfield feeding them multiple chances
This season Sydney has had the least impacted list by injury
2 or 3 injuries there back to the pack
Even without injury I reckon we can get them if we’re at full strength
Pendles on Heeney, Crisp on Warner, JDG on Rowbottom will give us at least a break square in the midfield with Mitchell. Lipinski, Nick, Schulz all able to rotate through the middle as well.
I think the second half on the weekend we learned there’s a role of McCreery using him with a run with role. Playing as a mid didn’t seem to suit him but changing that role to be a pseudo tagger or someone who takes him to the ball he has the speed and physical attributes to be dangerous.
Back we would have Moore, IQ, Noble or Markov, Howe, Frampton and either Nick or WHE or TJ at this stage
Forward we would have Hill, Elliott, McStay, Checkers, with a mixture of Sidey Richard’s Harrison Schulz JDG Nick WHE
We have some good options if fully fit list

[Jezza]

8 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses (36 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)

R17 - Essendon (H)
R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[K]

...
After R10, the Squiggle models reckon Collingwood's chances are:
5% for 1st
39% for top 4
74% for top 8.

For 1st, they reckon it's:
Sydney 67%
Geebung 8%
Port 6%
Ess 4%
Melb 3%
...

The GC loss was costly. After R16. Squiggle models reckon:
21% for top 4
64% fpr top 8.

Range 5-11.

[Jezza]

8 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses (36 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R17 - Essendon (H) = LOSS (36 points)

R18 - Geelong (H)
R19 - Hawthorn (A)
R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)