Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

Use this forum for non-Collingwood related footy topics that don't relate specifically to any of the other forums. For non-footy sporting topics please use Nick's Sports Bar and for non-sporting topics please use the Victoria Park Tavern.

Moderator: bbmods

Post Reply
User avatar
think positive
Posts: 40243
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:33 pm
Location: somewhere
Has liked: 342 times
Been liked: 105 times

Post by think positive »

Oh. Bugger
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either!
Top
User avatar
Skids
Posts: 9949
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:46 am
Location: ANZAC day 2019 with Dad.
Has liked: 33 times
Been liked: 48 times

Post by Skids »

Entriviere - Dads mate has a share in this up and comer, that I'm going to declare, the next superstar.

She goes around on Saturday in the Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill. Opened at $3.80 & got crunched in to $2.80 in about 30 minutes. A warm up.for The Invitation. She's currently $9 in that, but after she blows them away on Saturday, you'll be lucky to get $5.
Don't count the days, make the days count.
Top
User avatar
ronrat
Posts: 4932
Joined: Mon May 22, 2006 11:25 am
Location: Thailand

Post by ronrat »

Pies4shaw wrote:They might. It's in Perth, isn't it?
No. Adelaide oval. They should look at Stevics performances and reduce Toby Greenes penalty to one match.
Annoying opposition supporters since 1967.
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

sb Premiership odds

Melbourne 1.64
WB 2.26
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

K (Sep. 1) wrote:
Skids wrote:...
What you would do in the scenario you give (which I did when I backed Richmond early in 2017 @14/1) is back whoever your pick is playing to win the game.

I had $100 on Richmond at 14/1 about 8 weeks out from the finals.
When they lined up against Adelaide, I put $500 on Adelaide @ $1.80.... I couldn't lose. Sure I could have won $500 more if I'd just stuck with my initial wager but being guaranteed a minimum profit of $300 was a no brainer.
I collected $1500 for a total outlay of $600.
Yep. But easier when it's a two-horse race than when there are still 3+.

It's tricky deciding when to cash out. Early this year, a poster on this board put money on the multi of The Bont for Charlie ($11) and WB for the flag ($11) for a return of $121. This was a good bet. It's still good! But in hindsight it probably maxed a few weeks ago. Cash out at that time would have been the best. But who would have predicted WB would lose 3 games in a row and The Bont lose form?
It changed again! WB's stocks have risen again. The Bont's were very good half-way through the Brownlow count.* That was the best time to cash out... But may not have been able to do that in the middle of the count. It's a bit unpredictable when sb allow cash out. So the best time to cash out may have been just before the Brownlow count began. Easy to say in hindsight of course!


* From the Brownlow thread:

At 9.40pm, after round 18, sb had Bontempelli 2.25; Oliver 2.63; Wines 3.00.

At 9.47pm, the odds had had a huge swing to Wines 1.14; Bontempelli 5.00;
Oliver 15.00.
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

I need Melbourne to win so I don't lose a lot. ...

<snip> [Post-GF edit: Maybe I shouldn't have been so worried. :wink: ]

I was looking for some very safe bets as legs in a same game multi, to bundle with a H2H (etc.) leg that is unsafe... But wowee... I'm not sure some of those safe bets are safe.

e.g. any time goal scorer... Ben Brown is 1.10. Is it really so safe to assume Brown will score a goal? :?: And Naughton 1.12... Same question...

In the disposal markets, The Bont is 1.12 to get 20+... Oliver 1.11 to get 25+...


Dunno which of those four (for example) is safest....
Last edited by K on Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
Top
User avatar
piedys
Posts: 13425
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: Gold Coast Asylum
Has liked: 371 times
Been liked: 101 times

Post by piedys »

K wrote:Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

....
Skids, Skids - he's our man - if he can't help you - no one can! :lol:
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

K wrote:...
e.g. any time goal scorer... Ben Brown is 1.10. Is it really so safe to assume Brown will score a goal? :?: And Naughton 1.12... Same question...

In the disposal markets, The Bont is 1.12 to get 20+... Oliver 1.11 to get 25+...


Dunno which of those four (for example) is safest....
Post-game check:

The Bont got 25 disposals. Oliver 33. (Petracca 39. :shock: Macrae 26.)

Brown 3 goals. Naughton 1.

So all those got up, with Naughton I guess the least safe.
Top
User avatar
Skids
Posts: 9949
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:46 am
Location: ANZAC day 2019 with Dad.
Has liked: 33 times
Been liked: 48 times

Post by Skids »

piedys wrote:
K wrote:Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

....
Skids, Skids - he's our man - if he can't help you - no one can! :lol:
:lol:

Failed dismally.... closest I got was the Treloar 3 goals/Gawn 30 disposals double @ 200/1.

All good, Entriviere won with a leg in the air and is now $4 favourite for The Invitation.
Don't count the days, make the days count.
Top
User avatar
Skids
Posts: 9949
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:46 am
Location: ANZAC day 2019 with Dad.
Has liked: 33 times
Been liked: 48 times

Post by Skids »

Opening market for 2022

Demons $5
Dogs $ 6.50
Lions $9
Cats, Port $10
Swans, Tigers $11
Eagles $13
Giants $15
Bombers $21
Blues, Saints, Dockers $26
Crows, Hawks, Roos, Suns & Pies $81
Don't count the days, make the days count.
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

Skids, do you have accounts at both Ladbrokes and Neds? (They're both owned by the same group.)
Top
User avatar
Skids
Posts: 9949
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:46 am
Location: ANZAC day 2019 with Dad.
Has liked: 33 times
Been liked: 48 times

Post by Skids »

K wrote:Skids, do you have accounts at both Ladbrokes and Neds? (They're both owned by the same group.)
Ladbrokes
WATAB
Sportsbet
Bet365

Are the 4 I use. Rarely use Bet365, they started limiting my bet sizes. TAB & Ladbrokes are my main 2.
Don't count the days, make the days count.
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

Skids, the best thing about starting an account is the sign-up freebies. I reckon they give stuff like bonus bets when folks first sign up... but then they stop after the first month or two.

So if I need a freebie fix, I have to sign up to a new account. :wink:

Like now, I'm getting a small bonus bet for thoroughbreds (or harness or greyhounds). Skids, do you have any thoroughbred tips that can be placed in the next week? :?:

I only normally punt on sport, not the horses, so I have no idea...
Top
23 YIPPEE!!!

Post by 23 YIPPEE!!! »

Should re name the post top 4 2022:

Well my top 4 in 2022:

Melbourne
Dogs
Port
Sydney
Top
K
Posts: 21557
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:23 pm
Has liked: 6 times
Been liked: 32 times

Post by K »

Video Message from the Club:

https://twitter.com/CollingwoodFC/statu ... 5506332675

"... when you gamble often, the same chemical gets released when you get a near miss. Essentially, your brain gets tricked into thinking you've won and this encourages you to keep going..."
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Nick's Other AFL”